Since the People's Bank of China buys most of the foreign exchange flowing into China to control the yuan's rate of climb, the central bank's reserves rose by US$470 billion in 2010.
"That is a clearly better number to use than the current account. It does show slower growth from a bigger base, both in terms of GDP and reserves themselves.
"But it also modifies the claim of rebalancing: growth in imbalances has slowed sharply, a necessary first step but not actual rebalancing," Scissors said.
Still, the G20 is leaning heavily towards adopting the current account as a major benchmark, and many economists are forecasting a continued decline in China's surplus.
Macquarie has pencilled in 4,4 percent for this year and 3,7 percent for 2012; Nomura's forecasts are 4,1 percent and 3,1 percent, respectively. Geithner last year floated an indicative maximum surplus or deficit of 4 percent.
"At this point, China is clearly helping to rebalance the world economy in two ways: its import volume is rising distinctly faster than its by no means sluggish export volume, and its increased overheating means inflationary pressure that raises the real effective exchange rate," Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research in London said in a report.
Imports leapt 51 percent in January from the same month a year earlier, outstripping a 38 percent rise in exports.
Seasonal factors make the figures impossible to interpret with confidence, but the buoyancy in imports extends beyond commodities. China last year became the world's No. 2 importer.
German exports to China of luxury cars and top-of-the-line manufacturing equipment are booming as China raises the quality of its industrial base, a priority of the five-year plan to be unveiled next month.
As for inflation, the other ingredient in China's rebalancing, a consensus has formed that a higher rate of around 4 percent is the "new normal" in an era of rising food prices and rapidly accelerating wages for migrant workers.
The ruling Communist Party needed no reminder of the perils of inflation even before the recent spate of revolts in North Africa and the Middle East. Policymakers are on high alert.
But as economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch point out, inflation also helps the economy adjust: rising wages erode the competitiveness of labour-intensive exporters and boost consumption in a way that fiscal policy cannot.
China's costs and productivity relative to those of viable rivals mean it will remain an unbeatable mass manufacturer of consumer goods, even if the likes of Bangladesh and Cambodia capture lower-volume runs of low-end textiles.
But the message for the world is get ready for higher prices from China. In the United States, the cost of apparel rose 1,0 percent in January, the US Labor Department said on Thursday.
"The trend of adjustment through higher inflation is likely to persist for the next several years," the BoA Merrill economists concluded in a report.-Reuters